BKBYDCAL.RVW   980207

"Beyond Calculation", Peter J. Denning/Robert M. Metcalfe, 1997,
0-387-94932-1, U$27.00
%A   Peter J. Denning
%A   Robert M. Metcalfe bob_metcalfe@infoworld.com
%C   175 Fifth Ave., New York, NY   10010
%D   1997
%G   0-387-94932-1
%I   Springer-Verlag
%O   U$27.00 212-460-1500 800-777-4643 wborden@springer-ny.com
%P   313 p.
%T   "Beyond Calculation: The Next Fifty Years of Computing"

Fortune telling is a mugs game.  The more so in a rapidly changing
field like information technology, where a single technical innovation
can advance the work ten years, and a business instigated lawsuit can
retard development a like amount.  As James Burke points out in the
foreword, invention changes life and society in elusive ways that are
difficult to observe and almost impossible to predict.

However, if anyone can give us a glimpse of what might be ahead, it is
the stellar who's who of computing represented by most of the pieces
gathered in these pages.  It is also worth noting that Denning and
Metcalfe have done a superior job in grouping, organizing, and
introducing the essays.  However, while all of the papers are
informed, and many are stimulating, too many of them signally fail to
boldly go where computing hasn't already been.

Part one of the book looks to the technical developments that we can
reasonably foresee over the next fifty years.  Bell and Gray start off
in "The Revolution Yet to Happen" with a review of the growth (and
shrinkage) of computing hardware based on past trends, which indicates
a future of massive numbers of high powered computers per person and a
ubiquitous network linking everything.  Cerf presents a scenario of
what computers will be like "When They're Everywhere" as well. 
Frankston acknowledges the problems with endlessly projecting current
growth trends, but points out that developments outside the
information technology field will help us go "Beyond Limits."  If we
miss the mark in estimating the future it will probably be because of
failing to see the forest of evolution for the trees of specific
technologies, or, as Dijkstra puts it, "The Tide, Not the Waves." 
Hamming also tells us "How to Think About Trends" in considering the
progress of computing itself, outside fields, and society at large. 
Weiser and Brown project a "Coming Age of Calm Technology" from an
extension of historical "periods" of computing.  These papers are
thought provoking, but certain omissions, like the lack of mention of
the age of the minicomputer, point out the haste of preparation that
went into the book.  Other gaps point out the volunteer nature of the
book: although all but one of the essays sees great things coming from
networking, and although a number of the authors have contributed to
networking, none is primarily involved with telecommunications.  An
advance in routing technology and the assignment of a small section of
spectrum to personal computer use would have more impact on computing
than any breakthrough that would allow Moore's law to continue beyond
2010.

Part two looks at the topic of human-machine interaction, largely in
the broadest interpretation of the concept of machine intelligence,
and at the impact that may have upon who we are as human beings. 
Unlike the network basis of Tapscott's "Growing Up Digital" (cf.
BKGRUPDI.RVW), Turkle explores "Growing Up in the Culture of
Simulation."  Her points are interesting, but not, perhaps,
compelling, relying as much on fairy tales as on harder forms of
reality.  In "Why It's Good That Computers Don't Work Like the
Brain,", Norman states that machine and human intelligence cannot be
compared because they are orthogonal and complementary.  He raises a
number of interesting questions but, somewhat frustratingly, doesn't
address them.  In "The Logic of Dreams," on the other hand, Gelernter
proposes that we examine and try to model even more areas of human
cognition, even those as seemingly non-mechanical as emotion.  Alt
generally seems to agree with Norman, and in "End-Running Human
Intelligence" he suggests some interesting areas where expert systems
may supplant, or at least assist, human experts.  Abrahams suggests
that difficulty of design as well as societal factors may hinder the
computer and robotic target of "A World Without Work."  However, his
assertion that sex, preaching, art and other activities are strictly
limited to human endeavour I find less than compelling in view of
fetishists, televangelists, and "Danielle Steel" knock-offs that are
acceptable to steadfast fans.  (For the purposes of this review, we
will not enter into disputes as to whether writings by Danielle Steel
constitute art.)  In "The Design of Interaction," Winograd traces the
history of information technology from computing to communication,
from hardware to specific application (in stark contrast to the
attempts of any entire generation of computer literacy teachers to
explain the computer as a toolbox), and from oddity to personal tool. 
(My own projection of these trends is to envisage a person surrounded
by a host of well informed tutors for any task, but I don't think this
is where Winograd goes with it.)  In terms of prognostication this
section is disappointing since, with the exception of Alt, most of the
essays are generally philosophical without much attempt made to
project ideas forward.

Business and innovation is the topic of part three, but, again, more
of it looks back than forward.  Evans description of IBM as "The
Stumbling Titan" may have lessons to suggest, but it doesn't say where
the next decade will lead, let alone fifty years.  In "The Leaders of
the Future" Flores traces the movement from computing to
communications, and then extends it to articulation of business
vision.  His extension, however, is little more than an assertion
without analysis of how advances in technology will make this
possible.  Data security is under increasing attack from "ease of use"
in technology.  Druffel's look at "Information Warfare" shows that the
current situation is pretty deplorable but it doesn't go much beyond
that.  A staple of the cyberpunk genre is the rise of the corporation
beyond the state.  Mowshowitz does visit this future in "Virtual
Feudalism" but doesn't try to test it against the virtual corporations
mentioned elsewhere.  Chamberlin's vision of "Sharing Our Planet"
raises interesting and fairly convincing points about the fact of
evolution in software, but his cultural prediction seems to rest
mostly on wish fulfillment.  In "There and Not There," Mitchell and
Strimpel's review of telepresence starts out by noting that presence
costs.  Unfortunately, they don't follow up with the obvious
corollary: that, due to bandwidth, high fidelity telepresence is going
to have a cost as well.  Tsichritzis tells us that "The Dynamics of
Innovation" have to change, but his proposal seems to be merely a
restating of the old battle between basic research and technical
development.  Similarly, Dennings' exposition of "How We Will Learn"
is a market forces based view of the time-hallowed spat between
universities and technical institutes, vocational schools, or even
guild halls.

To a certain extent, I feel a lack of imagination in these writings. 
There is discussion of networking, but not distributed processing, as
an extension of parallel processing, or Fred Cohen's proposed viral
computing environment, as an extension of both.  While this hesitation
on the part of the authors may be disappointing, at least the material
is a great deal more thoughtful and thought provoking than too many of
the blue sky visions of the road ahead.

copyright Robert M. Slade, 1998   BKBYDCAL.RVW   980207