[Advisors] FW: [CivicAccess-discuss] Fwd: [spno-data] FYI - Governing in the Dark: Good policy-making requires reliable statistical data (Toronto Star)
michael gurstein
gurstein at gmail.com
Tue, 30 Oct 2012 12:42:53 +0800
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Harper's gift that will keep on giving :(.
M
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ted Hildebrandt <thildebrandt@cdhalton.ca>
Date: Mon, Oct 29, 2012 at 9:03 AM
Subject: [spno-data] FYI - Governing in the Dark: Good policy-making
requires reliable statistical data (Toronto Star)
To: "spno@yahoogroups.com" <spno@yahoogroups.com>
Cc: "spno-data@yahoogroups.com" <spno-data@yahoogroups.com>
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1278417--governing-i
n-the-dark-good-policy-making-requires-reliable-statistical-data
Governing in the Dark: Good policy-making requires reliable statistical data
Published on Saturday October 27, 2012
Susan McDaniel
How to lie with statistics is a popular phrase that went viral before going
viral became a concept. Truth is, lying, or at least misrepresenting, is
made easier when there are fewer statistics. Machiavelli understood this
well, as do his modern political offspring - much to our peril as citizens.
Time was, back before 2006 when the current federal government came to
power, that evidence-based policy-making, as well as evidence-based practice
in medicine, nursing, law, management and most other endeavours, was the
guiding principle. It's simple really: Try to base policy and practice on
what we know about the problem at hand and what we know about what works to
solve it. No point prescribing something in medicine or policy for a problem
that is disappearing on its own, for example, or prescribing something that
makes a problem worse.
Even as a minority government, the Harper Conservatives gave little welcome
to evidence, scientific or statistical. In July 2010, before the majority,
the long-form census
<http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/census/article/839660--why-the-long-cens
us-matters> hit the dustbin. Why? The government argued that the questions
asked infringed on the privacy of Canadians. In fact, there had been only a
handful of official complaints about privacy invasion, by asking questions
such as how many bathrooms or bedrooms you have in your house, information
readily available on the Internet for all houses for sale to anyone
interested.
In the to-and-fro of who said what, the chief statistician in 2010 felt he
had to resign. His two-word response when asked, after he left office,
whether a voluntary survey could replace the long-form census, was: "It
cannot."
Some statements at that time suggested Statistics Canada
<http://www.statcan.gc.ca/start-debut-eng.html> thought it was more
independent of government oversight than it indeed was, or should be. That
and subsequent double cuts that hit Statistics Canada have led to beliefs
that the truths statistics tell may not be so truthful. Statistics Canada
was doubly cut in that it faced a slice from its budget as large as several
other government departments. However, added to those cuts were surveys
funded by other departments whose budget cuts no longer allow them to fund
surveys.
Why does this matter for Canadians? Just as scientific evidence matters to
our well-being, so does statistical data and analysis. Statistical data does
three things:
. It tells us whether we are making progress or not.
. It identifies the kinds of changes that make things better for us as
individuals and for society.
. When government policy is being considered or evaluated, it tells us
about policy effectiveness.
The long-form census debacle plus the double cuts to Statistics Canada have
raised questions for Canadians about statistical data. One question is
unwarranted but still asked: Can Statistics Canada data be trusted as much
now as in the past if the agency is seen as just another government
department? The answer clearly is yes. Statistics Canada remains an
unbiased, trusted, arms-length from politics official statistical agency.
What data it collects is reliable and dependable.
That said, the data it collects and its capacity to analyze that data has
been diminished, and Canadians are the worse for it. We can no longer assess
our progress on either the economic or social front to the extent we should
in 2012.
This means we cannot identify the kinds of changes we as individuals or as a
society might make to improve. It also is increasingly clear that its
statistical analyses do not inform policy as much as they should. One
glaring example is the crime trend analysis that shows crime declining, yet
the policy agenda includes building more prisons. Instead of evidence-based
policies or practices, we seem to have the image at least of policy-based
evidence-making, where anecdotes, assumptions and power take precedence over
careful analysis and statistical trends.
All said, Statistics Canada, rated as the best statistical agency in the
world, is diminished but still strong. It can still tell us about ourselves,
but not in as fulsome and cutting edge a way as it could.
The diminishment of Statistics Canada diminishes Canada and Canadians.
Susan McDaniel, Canada Research Chair in Global Population and Life Course
and Professor of Sociology, University of Lethbridge, is a long-time user of
Statistics Canada data. She has previously been on faculty at the
Universities of Alberta and Waterloo.
__._,_.___
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue =
vlink=3Dpurple><div =
class=3DWordSection1><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style=3D'color:#1F497D'>Harper's =
gift that will keep on giving :(.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span =
style=3D'color:#1F497D'>M<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'>---------- Forwarded message =
----------<br>From: <b>Ted Hildebrandt</b> <<a =
href=3D"mailto:thildebrandt@cdhalton.ca">thildebrandt@cdhalton.ca</a>>=
<br>Date: Mon, Oct 29, 2012 at 9:03 AM<br>Subject: [spno-data] FYI - =
Governing in the Dark: Good policy-making requires reliable statistical =
data (Toronto Star)<br>To: "<a =
href=3D"mailto:spno@yahoogroups.com">spno@yahoogroups.com</a>" =
<<a =
href=3D"mailto:spno@yahoogroups.com">spno@yahoogroups.com</a>><br>Cc: =
"<a =
href=3D"mailto:spno-data@yahoogroups.com">spno-data@yahoogroups.com</a>&q=
uot; <<a =
href=3D"mailto:spno-data@yahoogroups.com">spno-data@yahoogroups.com</a>&g=
t;<br><br><span style=3D'color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'><a =
href=3D"http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1278417--=
governing-in-the-dark-good-policy-making-requires-reliable-statistical-da=
ta" =
target=3D"_blank">http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article=
/1278417--governing-in-the-dark-good-policy-making-requires-reliable-stat=
istical-data</a> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span =
style=3D'font-size:24.0pt'>Governing in the Dark: Good policy-making =
requires reliable statistical data</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><i><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'>Published on Saturday October 27, 2012 =
</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><i><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'>Susan McDaniel</span></i></b><i><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'> </span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p>How to lie with =
statistics is a popular phrase that went viral before going viral became =
a concept. Truth is, lying, or at least misrepresenting, is made easier =
when there are fewer statistics. Machiavelli understood this well, as do =
his modern political offspring — much to our peril as =
citizens.<o:p></o:p></p><p>Time was, back before 2006 when the current =
federal government came to power, that evidence-based policy-making, as =
well as evidence-based practice in medicine, nursing, law, management =
and most other endeavours, was the guiding principle. It’s simple =
really: Try to base policy and practice on what we know about the =
problem at hand and what we know about what works to solve it. No point =
prescribing something in medicine or policy for a problem that is =
disappearing on its own, for example, or prescribing something that =
makes a problem worse. <o:p></o:p></p><p>Even as a minority government, =
the Harper Conservatives gave little welcome to evidence, scientific or =
statistical. In July 2010, before the majority, <a =
href=3D"http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/census/article/839660--why-the=
-long-census-matters" target=3D"_blank">the long-form census</a> hit the =
dustbin. Why? The government argued that the questions asked infringed =
on the privacy of Canadians. In fact, there had been only a handful of =
official complaints about privacy invasion, by asking questions such as =
how many bathrooms or bedrooms you have in your house, information =
readily available on the Internet for all houses for sale to anyone =
interested. <o:p></o:p></p><p>In the to-and-fro of who said what, the =
chief statistician in 2010 felt he had to resign. His two-word response =
when asked, after he left office, whether a voluntary survey could =
replace the long-form census, was: “It =
cannot.”<o:p></o:p></p><p>Some statements at that time suggested =
<a href=3D"http://www.statcan.gc.ca/start-debut-eng.html" =
target=3D"_blank">Statistics Canada</a> thought it was more independent =
of government oversight than it indeed was, or should be. That and =
subsequent double cuts that hit Statistics Canada have led to beliefs =
that the truths statistics tell may not be so truthful. Statistics =
Canada was doubly cut in that it faced a slice from its budget as large =
as several other government departments. However, added to those cuts =
were surveys funded by other departments whose budget cuts no longer =
allow them to fund surveys.<o:p></o:p></p><p>Why does this matter for =
Canadians? Just as scientific evidence matters to our well-being, so =
does statistical data and analysis. Statistical data does three things: =
<o:p></o:p></p><p> <span =
style=3D'font-size:18.0pt'>•</span> It tells us whether we =
are making progress or not.<o:p></o:p></p><p> <span =
style=3D'font-size:18.0pt'>•</span> It identifies the kinds =
of changes that make things better for us as individuals and for =
society.<o:p></o:p></p><p> <span =
style=3D'font-size:18.0pt'>•</span> When government policy is =
being considered or evaluated, it tells us about policy =
effectiveness.<o:p></o:p></p><p>The long-form census debacle plus the =
double cuts to Statistics Canada have raised questions for Canadians =
about statistical data. One question is unwarranted but still asked: Can =
Statistics Canada data be trusted as much now as in the past if the =
agency is seen as just another government department? The answer clearly =
is yes. Statistics Canada remains an unbiased, trusted, arms-length from =
politics official statistical agency. What data it collects is reliable =
and dependable.<o:p></o:p></p><p>That said, the data it collects and its =
capacity to analyze that data has been diminished, and Canadians are the =
worse for it. We can no longer assess our progress on either the =
economic or social front to the extent we should in 2012. =
<o:p></o:p></p><p>This means we cannot identify the kinds of changes we =
as individuals or as a society might make to improve. It also is =
increasingly clear that its statistical analyses do not inform policy as =
much as they should. One glaring example is the crime trend analysis =
that shows crime declining, yet the policy agenda includes building more =
prisons. Instead of evidence-based policies or practices, we seem to =
have the image at least of policy-based evidence-making, where =
anecdotes, assumptions and power take precedence over careful analysis =
and statistical trends. <o:p></o:p></p><p>All said, Statistics Canada, =
rated as the best statistical agency in the world, is diminished but =
still strong. It can still tell us about ourselves, but not in as =
fulsome and cutting edge a way as it could. <o:p></o:p></p><p>The =
diminishment of Statistics Canada diminishes Canada and =
Canadians.<o:p></o:p></p><p><b><i>Susan McDaniel</i></b><i>, Canada =
Research Chair in Global Population and Life Course and Professor of =
Sociology, University of Lethbridge, is a long-time user of Statistics =
Canada data. She has previously been on faculty at the Universities of =
Alberta and Waterloo.</i><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p =
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